IS THE WORLD READY FOR TRUMP 2?
If the opinion polls are anything to go by, it looks increasingly likely that Donald Trump will beat Joe Biden in the US presidential elections in November and regain the keys to the White House. Groans of dismay can already be heard from Scotland to Strasbourg, as the prospect of a second Trump presidency looms. The vast range of criminal and civil court cases pending against The Donald seem simply to have emboldened him and convinced his legions of Republican supporters that the ‘Deep State’ is trying to nobble their hero. Now his lawyers have asked the Supreme Court to grant him “absolute immunity” from criminal prosecution for acts carried out while serving as president. Part of the prevailing Trump legacy from his first 4 years in power, was the appointment of key members of the Supreme Court, so his legal team may be pushing at an open door.
So, what might Trump 2 look like for the UK, EU and the rest of the world? It may seem unbelievable, but Trump is always upbeat about Britain. He is proud of his Scottish/Isle of Lewis ancestry on his mother’s side and boasts about the excellence of his golf courses at Menie in Aberdeenshire and Turnberry in Ayrshire. He was an admirer of Boris Johnson whom, he told supporters in America, was called the “British Trump” because “they like me so much over there.” Some pundits claim that if he had remained in office in 2020, Britain would by now have a fully functioning tariff-free trade deal with America, something unimaginable under the pro-Irish, anti-British Joe Biden. So, a second Trump term could be much better for Britain than a second Biden term.
But how will a rejuvenated Trump administration impact on our national security and international diplomacy? The EU and UK were shocked to the core when Trump told a rally in South Carolina that he would pull America out of Nato and “encourage” aggressors like Russia “to do whatever the hell they want” with Nato countries that failed to pay their dues. Now he has climbed down from that rhetoric, telling Nigel Farage in a GB News interview that he would keep the US “one hundred percent” in the military alliance. Is this climbdown an indication that once he achieves his goal of a second term he will ditch his more ferocious vows, like banning Muslims, deporting millions of illegal immigrants, building a wall and setting the Middle East ablaze? It is possible, but the hard-right populist Republicans who support Trump will want to see action on these issues and they will hold his feet to the fire.
Then there is the vexing question of Trump’s relationship with Vladimir Putin. He described the Russian dictator as a “genius” for annexing Crimea in 2014 and even proclaimed “the rest of Ukraine will fall…fairly quickly.” Putin will be looking forward eagerly to Trump’s re-election, having fulfilled his friend’s prediction by invading the rest of Ukraine in February 2022. Trump has claimed he could stop the Ukraine war “in 24 hours” without explaining how, although he has threatened to slow down or end US support for Zelensky. With Britain providing significant aid for Ukraine, a Trump 2 presidency could further strain the so-called ‘special relationship’.
That relationship will also be sorely tested over the climate crisis. Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew America from the Paris Agreement, stating: “The badly flawed Paris Climate Agreement protects polluters, hurts Americans and cost a fortune. Not on my watch.” In 2019 he said “I’m an environmentalist. A lot of people don’t understand that. I think I know more about the environment than most people.” However, he has rather undermined that boast by calling global warming supporters “hoaxers” and claiming that "The concept of global warming was created by and for the Chinese in order to make US manufacturing non-competitive."
On the Middle East, Trump’s approach was always more prudent than Joe Biden. He withdrew America from Barack Obama’s Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear deal with the Iranian regime, correctly identifying it as being a cheats’ charter, enabling the mullahs to accelerate their construction of a nuclear weapon while fooling the West into lifting sanctions. Trump also ordered the drone attack in January 2020 which killed the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) terrorist general Qassem Soleimani, at Baghdad Airport. Soleimani had the blood of many Americans and thousands of other innocent people on his hands and it was a bold decision by Trump to eliminate him.
A Trump 2 administration can be expected to confront the mullahs head-on, ending Biden’s weak appeasement policy and holding Tehran to account for their proxy warmongering in the Middle East and sponsorship of terrorism abroad. Trump’s unequivocal support for Israel, where he even recognized Jerusalem as the capital and moved the US embassy there, has now manifested itself in a call to Benyamin Netanyahu to end the war in Gaza and “get back to the world of peace.” As with most things Trump says, this message is not quite what it seems. Trump is not urging his Israeli chum to stop the bombing in Gaza and withdraw his troops. On the contrary, he is urging him to accelerate and intensify the military assault to finish the business as quickly as possible.
Likewise, Trump’s determination to enter into face-to-face dialogue with North Korea’s Kim Jong-un, may have helped to cool tensions at the time, but has certainly not prevented the “Rocket Man” as Trump calls the North Korean despot, from commanding the fifth largest nuclear arsenal in Asia, after China, Russia, India, and Pakistan. Trump 2 will have to flex his peacemaker muscles to keep his portly pal in check.
With spiralling violence in the Middle East, Russia’s aggressive war in Ukraine, tensions between China and Taiwan, as well as the climate crisis, the special relationship between the UK and America is more important than ever. Together with the rise of the populist right across the EU and the fact that the arrival of a Trump 2 presidency may coincide with a change in government in the UK, the geopolitical landscape is shifting like never before. Boris Johnson says “a Trump presidency could be just what the world needs”. Planet Earth is holding its breath!
