Monday, 30th May 2011
Struan Stevenson - Tajikistan Visit - Address to Majilis, 30 May 2011
Your Excellency Mr Speaker, Honourable Members of Parliament.
Tajikistan can play a major role in the international arena as a key strategic partner of Europe and the West in Central Asia. This is a view that I have expressed many times in my correspondence with President Jerzy Buzek of the European Parliament and Prime Minister David Cameron of the United Kingdom.
This is a view that is based on my own personal experience of Tajik affairs. In my capacity as Personal Representative of the Kazakh President in Office of the OSCE, responsible for ecology and the environment, I travelled to Tajikistan in mid-September last year for meetings with the Minister for Foreign Affairs – Hamrokhon Zarifi and with Gul Sherali – Minster of Energy & Industry. I also met with the Speaker of the Majilis – Shukurjon Zuhurov, the Chairman of the Committee on Environmental protection- Khursandmurod Zikirov and the First Deputy Minister of Melioration & Water Resources –Sulton Rahimov. As part of my trip, I also visited the impressive Nurek and Rogun Hydro Electric Power projects on the Vakhsh River.
My final OSCE report has now been published and includes extensive research on prospective solutions to all of the environmental disasters which have afflicted the five Central Asian republics. In respect of the highly sensitive upstream/downstream water issues and the role played by Tajikistan, the report is both positive and optimistic.
From the outset of my OSCE posting, it quickly became evident that Tajikistan has emerged from its bloody civil war to become a functioning democracy which is a model for the region. It has an improving record on human rights and while it is still battling some financial difficulties, like any transition country, it has great potential to develop mineral and water resources if it can achieve significant levels of inward investment.
However, by virtue of its geographical position nestling in the high Pamir Mountains on the rooftop of the world, with Afghanistan, Iran and the other Central Asian republics as neighbours, Tajikistan is in the middle of a highly sensitive area and is strategically important for the West. War is still raging in neighbouring Afghanistan where the Taleban are continually active. Skirmishes with drug smugglers crossing illegally from Afghanistan occur regularly, as Tajikistan is the first stop on the drugs route from there to Russia and the West. Islamic terrorists lurk in the mountains in nearby Pakistan.
Iran seeks to spread its ideological influence across the whole region. But Tajikistan, under the firm leadership of President Emomali Rahmon, stands guard. It is at the forefront of the fight against drugs and terrorists and as such, is a key strategic ally for the West. I believe President Rahmon must be congratulated on his efforts to maintain stability and security and should be widely supported by the West for his efforts to maintain Tajikistan as a strategic buffer state, preventing the incursion of drug smugglers and terrorists from Afghanistan and Pakistan.
In addition to its international geo-strategic importance, Tajikistan's geographic location also means that it has a vital role to play as a leader in the internal geopolitics of the Central Asian region. In my OSCE report, I have stated that the mountainous landscape of Tajikistan means that scarce water resources and limited water availability are not a concern for the country. However, as an upstream country in Central Asia's vast natural water network, I acknowledge that Tajikistan has responsibilities towards its downstream neighbours.
Such water issues affecting the upstream and downstream nations in Central Asia are a source of constant tension and the proposed construction of the Rogun reservoir on the Vakhsh River has become a particular focus of controversy. When operational, Rogun will produce a massive 3600 MW at peak capacity. Over 45 miles of underground tunnels have already been completed during the Soviet era and 5000 workers are engaged day and night in the construction of giant underground halls where the turbines will be located. It is intended to dam the Vakhsh River in the steep narrow valley in which Rogun is located with a 335 metre high stone and clay embankment. When I visited Rogun, I was deeply impressed by what I saw.
Uzbekistan has vehemently objected to the Rogun project, claiming it would give control of the river's flow to Tajikistan and could cause devastation if breached by an earthquake, but I have noted that such negative reactions are premature. In my report I suggest that Uzbekistan and other downstream nations in Central Asia should await the outcome of a critical analysis of the project by World Bank experts which is due to be published later this year. I am convinced, however, following my own visit to Tajikistan, that this project is both safe and regionally essential.
I have also pointed out that the Rogun reservoir will be broadly similar to the Nurek reservoir, located about 75km east of Dushanbe in the Pamir Mountains. Nurek also has a 300m high earthfill dam, with currently the largest reservoir in Tajikistan, stretching back for 70 km with a surface area of over 98km2 and a maximum depth of 220m.
Nurek, constructed during Soviet times, has withstood countless major earthquakes over four decades and is still functioning perfectly. Although I am not surprised that tension has arisen over Tajikistan's plans for Rogun, as it is common for tensions to arise between the upstream and downstream users of large dams, I cannot see why Rogun should be any different from Nurek in terms of safety, but I am happy to leave the final decision on its viability to the World Bank experts.
I am certain however, that both the Nurek and Rogun dams are vital structures which can be used to maintain both financial security in Tajikistan and regional stability in Central Asia. 95% of electricity in Tajikistan is generated from hydro electric power projects. The overhead lines and infrastructure needed to sell this electricity to neighbouring countries like Afghanistan and Pakistan are already being built.
The new reservoirs being planned at Rogun will take ten years to complete before they are fully operational, but Tajik officials have guaranteed that they will continue to supply their downstream neighbours with the same amount of water that they enjoy now via the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers. They claim that their new system of dams will provide a properly managed water source which will benefit everyone. The Tajiks point out that 60% of the rivers which serve Central Asia are sourced in Tajikistan. They claim that they have never and will never restrict water flow to their downstream neighbours.
Once it is operational, Rogun will provide a source of green, environmentally friendly energy which is both cheap and plentiful and will meet the needs of Tajikistan while also providing essential energy for neighbouring countries like Afghanistan and Pakistan. It seems like a win-win situation in an area that is desperate for energy. Combined with a more strategic use of water in the downstream countries, with concrete-lined reservoirs and droplet irrigation, there is no reason why the abundant water resources of Central Asia cannot be distributed fairly and used in a way that enhances, rather than threaten the future of the Ferghana Valley.
Tajikistan is leading the way in water resource management in Central Asia, providing energy and water for its neighbours. Tajikistan takes this responsibility very seriously and it deserves the encouragement of the West in its endeavours.
