Tuesday, 6th April 2010
Fight on to prevent former Soviet states descending into war
This week I have the great privilege of representing the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) on a visit to the Central Asian republics.
These nations - Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan – have been independent for less than 20 years and, being well off the tourist track, remain relatively unknown.
They are, however, the scene of some of the worst environmental damage inflicted anywhere on the face of the Earth and potentially a zone of future conflict over that most precious resource of all – water.
In Soviet times, the region was an unloved backyard, deemed suitable for above-ground nuclear explosions and the dumping of millions of tonnes of radioactive waste from uranium mining in plastic-lined reservoirs which are beginning to fall apart.
Ironically, increasing prosperity in the region nowadays is creating a potential conflict ‘timebomb’ for the future.
Historically, the Amu Darya river flowed out from the glaciers of mountainous Tajikistan, along the border between Afghanistan and Uzbekistan and across the desiccated plains, to reach its destination at the Aral Sea, once the fourth-largest body of water in the world.
But under Soviet rule, the Amu Darya and the other major river supplying the Aral Sea – the Syr Darya - were heavily exploited to irrigate vast cotton plantations and fuel ill-conceived hydropower schemes. As a result, the Aral Sea has shrunk to just 50% of its former size, creating an ecological disaster of epic proportions.
Neighbouring regions are now subjected to vicious toxic dust storms, whipped up from the exposed former seabed. The once rich Aral fishing grounds are now barren deserts, choked by pesticides and salt. The remaining local population suffers from a range of chronic illnesses.
But that’s just the start of the problem.
Since independence, the Central Asian states have understandably pursued their own development paths – often with little regard for their neighbours. Not only has this accelerated the constriction of the Aral Sea’s arteries, it has also led to ill-feeling between countries that depend heavily on each other’s resources.
So while upstream Kyrgyzstan cherishes dreams of powering its economy with hydroelectric dams, this has caused alarm in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, which depend on the water downstream for irrigation.
Perhaps the biggest threat to the region’s stability of all is yet to come. When, or if, the security situation stabilises in Afghanistan, that country will want to diversify away from heroin poppies towards more reputable crops.
While this may be good for Afghanistan, it could have dire consequences for relations between the Central Asian nations, by placing even more strain on the Amu Darya river. Forty percent of the Amu Darya basin lies within the borders of Afghanistan and more agricultural irrigation will have a dramatic impact on downstream countries.
Of course, Afghanistan’s people deserve a better future. But the international community must not assume that Afghanistan’s needs automatically trump those of the Central Asian states. The last thing we want is to sleepwalk into a whole series of future Afghanistans.
While Central Asia’s problems might seem remote from Scotland, we all know from recent experience how, if allowed to fester, they can become problems for the whole world.
The only solution is an effective partnership involving all these countries, supported by international bodies like the UN, European Union and OSCE.
I’m happy to say that moves are now afoot to bring this about and that’s why I’m proud to be working through OSCE under the current chairmanship of the Kazakh government, to compile a report on the region’s fragile ecology.
Hopefully, with the right political will, this could be the start of a roadmap towards a more harmonious and environmentally friendly future.
