Friday, 6th May 2011
Could Arab spring topple the al-Qaeda hydra?
[Article published in The Scotsman, Friday 6 May 2011]
The clinical elimination of Osama bin Laden by the US is very good news for the world, but let’s not pretend that it marks the end of al-Qaeda or that it will make life any easier for countries where its terrorists remain extremely active.
Having just returned from a diplomatic mission to Iraq, I saw at first-hand how the streets of Baghdad testify to the truth that whenever you cut off one head – no matter how significant – the beast remains intact.
Al-Qaeda’s influence means that the city is still a war zone – a place where missiles, mortars, suicide bombs and assassinations are a part of daily life. In the 16 days before we arrived, 81 police and military personnel were murdered at roadside checkpoints by gun-toting terrorists.
We held discussions with Iraqi President Talabani, the Council of Representatives and political leaders from all the main religious and ethnic groups in the country. The fledgling democracy in Iraq has reached a fragile stage, where the government of national unity has never been fully realised.
Without inclusive leadership, the Iraqi state will continue to struggle to assert itself against the debilitating strain imposed by the bin Ladens of this world and their successors and emulators who thrive on violence and fear.
Although there are welcome signs of a gradually growing economy, improving infrastructure and interest in inward investment from abroad, I believe it will be the legacy of the recent Arab awakening rather than the death of one terrorist in Pakistan that may have the biggest implications.
The political leaders I spoke to in Baghdad regard the Arab Spring as similar to the fall of the Berlin Wall – a startling symbol of the potential of Middle Eastern civil society to demand freedom, peaceful self-expression and a change to the status quo.
In the face of the nihilism offered by bin Laden’s remaining disciples, Iraq is gradually clawing its way out of the nightmare that has left tens of thousands dead. As one politician said to me, “We’ve had our Arab winter and our Arab spring. What we want now is a peaceful summer.”
Who could disagree?
